7 forecasters

How many of South Korea’s 17 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial posts will be won by Democratic Party candidates in the 2026 local elections?

community

13.1

result

Peer Score

community

+0.8

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+45.2

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

88.78

JSD Disagreement Score

11.16

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 7 - started May 11, 2026, 1:15 PM

Author:

PavelHanosek

Opened:

May 11, 2026

Closes:

May 11, 2026

Resolved:

Jun 12, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 11, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters