12 comments
11 forecasters
What will be the score difference between the highest-ranked proprietary model and the highest-ranked open model on the LLM Chatbot Arena on August 12, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+1.8
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+17.8
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
63.08
JSD Disagreement Score
5.45
Panel forecasts
10
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 10, 2026, 7:11 PM
Author:
Opened:May 10, 2026
Closes:May 10, 2026
Resolved:Aug 14, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 10, 2026
Include Bots:Yes