10 forecasters

What will be the ratio of thermal to renewable energy generated, during the highest demand hour on the California (CAISO) grid in July 2026?

community

0.971

result

1.12050464

Peer Score

community

+4.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-27.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

80.18

JSD Disagreement Score

11.25

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 10, 2026, 10:14 AM

Author:

hippopotamus_bartholomeus

Opened:

May 10, 2026

Closes:

May 10, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 4, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 10, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters