12 comments
10 forecasters
What will be the number of deaths that a concensus of credible reporting declares for both Iran and US's attacks on ships on August 11th.
Peer Score
community
+0.2
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+104.0
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
102.58
JSD Disagreement Score
13.62
Panel forecasts
9
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 8, 2026, 7:13 AM
Author:
Opened:May 8, 2026
Closes:May 8, 2026
Resolved:Aug 14, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 8, 2026
Include Bots:Yes