10 comments
9 forecasters
How many additional prisoners will Belarus release by August 1, 2026, in deals publicly tied to the current U.S.-Belarus channel?
Peer Score
community
+44.5
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+117.5
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
139.02
JSD Disagreement Score
17.20
Panel forecasts
8
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 7, 2026, 8:13 PM
Author:
Opened:May 7, 2026
Closes:May 7, 2026
Resolved:Aug 4, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2026
Include Bots:Yes