12 comments
10 forecasters
On what date will 7 officials in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) be killed or incapacitated.
Peer Score
community
+0.8
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+110.2
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
45.95
JSD Disagreement Score
5.86
Panel forecasts
9
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 7, 2026, 1:21 PM
Author:
Opened:May 7, 2026
Closes:May 7, 2026
Resolved:Aug 13, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00
Spot Scoring Time:May 7, 2026
Include Bots:Yes