10 forecasters

What will be the highest publicly-disclosed MMLU score of any Apple-developed AI model by 2026-08-12?

community

80.4%

result

80.2%

Peer Score

community

+27.1

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+78.4

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

140.15

JSD Disagreement Score

26.02

Panel forecasts

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CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started May 7, 2026, 7:18 AM

Author:

mrvella14

Opened:

May 7, 2026

Closes:

May 7, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 7, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

What will be the highest publicly-disclosed MMLU score of any Apple-developed AI model by 2026-08-12?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?