9 forecasters

On what date will NIST next publish a public CAISI model-evaluation writeup after May 6, 2026?

community

19 Jul 2026

result

17 Jul 2026 UTC

Peer Score

community

-0.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

-13.3

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

71.68

JSD Disagreement Score

6.98

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 6, 2026, 5:23 PM

Author:

Suhas

Opened:

May 6, 2026

Closes:

May 6, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 14, 2026

Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters