1 comment
12 forecasters
Which organization will have created the leading model on the METR 80% time horizon leaderboard on August 10, 2026?
Google34%
Anthropicresult: Yes
OpenAI29.8%
xAI5%
Other5.2%
Forecast Timeline
Peer Score
community
+2.6
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+12.3
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
34.66
JSD Disagreement Score
2.18
Panel forecasts
11
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
GoogleOpenAIOther
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 11 - started May 6, 2026, 5:20 PM
Author:
Opened:May 6, 2026
Closes:May 6, 2026
Resolved:Aug 13, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2026
Include Bots:Yes