12 forecasters

How many cumulative alleged ceasefire violations will CTSAMVM report in South Sudan for the period of April to July 2026?

community

184 Alleged violations

result

148 Alleged violations

Peer Score

community

+0.5

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+6.0

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

87.13

JSD Disagreement Score

9.45

Panel forecasts

PMF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 11 - started May 3, 2026, 8:11 PM

Author:

n.quinn

Opened:

May 3, 2026

Closes:

May 3, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 19, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

May 3, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters