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9 forecasters
When will the US and Iran jointly publish a formal agreement or permanent ceasefire document?
Peer Score
community
+36.9
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+121.4
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
251.13
JSD Disagreement Score
23.16
Panel forecasts
8
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 8 - started May 2, 2026, 11:17 PM
Author:
Opened:May 2, 2026
Closes:May 3, 2026
Resolved:Aug 13, 2026
Upper bound:12 Aug 2026 12:00
Spot Scoring Time:May 3, 2026
Include Bots:Yes