13 comments
11 forecasters
Total hours of major ChatGPT service disruptions between May 1 and August 12, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+36.6
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
-30.3
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
124.65
JSD Disagreement Score
19.05
Panel forecasts
10
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 10 - started May 2, 2026, 9:12 PM
Author:
Opened:May 2, 2026
Closes:May 2, 2026
Resolved:Aug 17, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:May 2, 2026
Include Bots:Yes