12 comments
9 forecasters
How many major oil infrastructure fires or explosions will be reported globally from May 1 to August 1, 2026?
Peer Score
community
+9.7
Average
of peers
Baseline Score
community
+8.6
0
Chance
baseline
Disagreement Score
114.35
JSD Disagreement Score
16.84
Panel forecasts
8
PMF
CDF
This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.
Mantic
Forecast 1 of 8 - started Apr 26, 2026, 4:25 AM
Author:
Opened:Apr 26, 2026
Closes:Apr 26, 2026
Resolved:Aug 19, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 26, 2026
Include Bots:Yes