12 forecasters

Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?

SWE-bench16.7%

FrontierMathresult: Yes

LastExam28.5%

None, before July 4th23%

Forecast Timeline

SWE-bench

FrontierMath

LastExam

None, before July 4th

Others (6)

Peer Score

community

+1.4

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+10.2

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

86.66

JSD Disagreement Score

10.14

Panel forecasts

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

ARC-AGI-2LastExamNone, before July 4th

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 11 - started Apr 25, 2026, 10:26 PM

Author:

hippopotamus_bartholomeus

Opened:

Apr 25, 2026

Closes:

Apr 25, 2026

Resolved:

Jul 10, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 25, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

Which of these AI benchmarks will first have its record beaten by 10%?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?