10 forecasters

Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?

Labourresult: Yes

Conservative9.5%

Liberal Democrats17.5%

Reform UK6.5%

Forecast Timeline

Labour

Conservative

Liberal Democrats

Reform UK

Others (2)

Peer Score

community

-1.8

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+67.1

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

50.06

JSD Disagreement Score

4.16

Panel forecasts

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

LabourReform UKOther

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Apr 24, 2026, 7:25 PM

Author:

mantic-questions

Opened:

Apr 24, 2026

Closes:

Apr 24, 2026

Resolved:

May 10, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 24, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters

Which party will have the most seats after the UK local elections in May 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?