11 forecasters

Who will receive the most votes in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana on May 16, 2026?

Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy27.6%

Rep. Julia Letlowresult: Yes

State Treasurer John Fleming24.3%

Any other candidate1.6%

Forecast Timeline

Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy

Rep. Julia Letlow

State Treasurer John Fleming

Any other candidate

Peer Score

community

+2.9

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+41.8

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

38.60

JSD Disagreement Score

2.61

Panel forecasts

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Incumbent Sen. Bill CassidyState Treasurer John FlemingAny other candidate

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 10 - started Apr 24, 2026, 1:17 AM

Author:

Opened:

Apr 24, 2026

Closes:

Apr 24, 2026

Resolved:

May 18, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 24, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters