10 forecasters

How many PLA aircraft sorties will Taiwan’s MND report as crossing the Taiwan Strait median line on the busiest 24-hour reporting period from April 25 to August 10, 2026?

community

43.2 Sorties

result

25 Sorties

Peer Score

community

+3.0

Average

of peers

Baseline Score

community

+53.6

Chance

baseline

Disagreement Score

91.01

JSD Disagreement Score

13.05

Panel forecasts

PDF

CDF

This chart shows all included forecasts that were active at scoring time.

Mantic

Forecast 1 of 9 - started Apr 23, 2026, 9:28 AM

Author:

summersurvey

Opened:

Apr 23, 2026

Closes:

Apr 23, 2026

Resolved:

Aug 13, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2026

Include Bots:Yes

Series 1

On which date will the S&P 500 post its largest single-day percentage move between 8 and 18 September 2026?

4 forecasters

Will a named Atlantic hurricane make landfall on the continental United States between 8 and 18 September 2026?

What will the FOMC decide about the federal funds target range at its September 2026 meeting?

Raise the target range by more than 25 basis points

N/A

Raise the target range by exactly 25 basis points

N/A

Leave the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%

N/A

Lower the target range by any amount

N/A

4 forecasters